Future Suppliers of Softwood Lumber to the US Market – Supply and Demand Outlook 2017-2030

The United States is the largest consumer of softwood lumber in the world, consuming approximately 85.5 million m3 in 2017 in home construction, home repair and remodelling, non-residential construction, and related end-markets. With softwood lumber production estimated at 62.7 million m3, and exports estimated at 4 million m3, the US imported an estimated 26.8 million m3 of softwood lumber from Canada (93 per cent) and off-shore suppliers ranging from New Zealand, to South America, to the Baltic region.

Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis, US demand for softwood lumber demand is re-emerging and is projected to continue to increase at a moderate pace. However, North America faces limits on its softwood timber supply as a result of losses to insects and fire, environmental set-asides, and the effective withdrawal of timber supply from publicly managed forests in the western US.

A multi-client study conducted by Forestedge LLC and Wood Resources International aimed to evaluate how US demand for softwood lumber could be met, even as the supply dynamics of North America change and off-shore supply and production economics evolve over the next decade.

The study projects demand for softwood lumber in the US to the year 2030, and independently evaluates current and potential import sources based on timber supply/demand, log costs, lumber production, and delivered softwood lumber costs to the US market, to identify the most likely sources of import demand to the US market over a 2017-2030 forecast period. 

Topics covered in the report include:

  • Demand for Softwood Lumber in the United States
  • Projected Sources of Softwood Lumber Supply 2017-2030
  • Supply Curve Analysis
  • Conclusions and Sensitivities

Other questions addressed in the report include:

  • What is the Outlook for Softwood Lumber Production Capacity in the US South?
  • Will European Sawmills be Competitive in the US Market in the Coming Decade?
  • Can Chile Increase Softwood Lumber Exports to the US?
  • How much will Lumber Shipments from British Columbia to the US Decline by 2030?
  • Can Timber Harvests and Lumber production in Eastern Canada Increase in the Future?
  • Can the US NW materially Increase Timber Harvests and will Log Exports Drop?
  • Will Russia be an Important Softwood Lumber Supplier to the US in the Future?

Source credited to Wood Resources International.