Wood Resources International & ForestEdge LLC jointly release “Sources of Softwood Lumber to the US 2017-2030”, a collaborative multi-client study intended to analyse how U.S. demand for softwood lumber can be met as dynamics and production costs of North American and overseas markets’ evolve over the next decade.
The 218-page study covers:
I. Demand and Projected Demand for Softwood lumber in the U.S. from 2017 to 2030: This section is based on projections of housing starts (demographics, multi/single family starts, average house size etc), Repair & Remodelling expenditures, and the evolution of other wood demand sectors (non-residential housing, CLT, and other industrial uses). Three demand scenarios are presented in this section.
II. Supply and Projected Sources of Softwood Lumber Supply from 2017 to 2030: This part focuses on profiles of key supply regions, including New Zealand, Chile, Brazil, Sweden, Eastern Canada, Western Canada, the Northwest of U.S. and the South of U.S. In each profile, the current supply and use of softwood logs is reported. Also included are projections of timber supply, analysis and projection of delivered log costs and an overview of the softwood sawmill industry.
The end of this section features lumber production forecasts, assessment of potential exports to the US and a cost model for products delivered to the US market.
Less comprehensive country profiles are also provided for Germany, Finland, Latvia and Russia.
III. Supply Curve Analysis: The study uses alternative projections of softwood lumber supply and demand on a delivered cost basis to identify which regions are most likely to supply the US market in the future and discusses how the delivered costs and trade may be impacted by changing sources of lumber supply.
IV. Conclusions and Sensitivities: The study considers sensitivities around exchange rates and insights into the implications on timberland investments in selected regions as a result of the outlook for higher demand for lumber in the US in the future.